Mithrandir Metrics
TEX 2026-06-02 Refreshed Jun 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-06-02

Brandon Nimmo

TEX · Hitter · bats L · age 33
IN · 3 Positive regression Neutral
MatchupTEX vs STLDustin May
Sample3948.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Valinor calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.055, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 19.7
F 17.9
V 17.9
Model 19.4% Market 15.6% Gap +3.2pp
FanDuel 515 tracking Open board
Total Bases --
Total Bases · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Hits 1.5
P 2.0
F 2.0 EXPERIMENTAL
V -- in progress
PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes
Model 2.0% Market -- Gap +3.5pp
FanDuel 7500 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%9.2%
54
Barrel%8.8%
87 +18 vs proj
Bat speed70.6
66
Exit velocity92.1
91
Hard-hit%51.6%
93
K%20.9%
58
xBA0.379
90
xSLG0.682
89
xwOBA0.385
93 +22 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.4 · RF
70
Arm Strength91.8 · RF
48
Outs Above Avg0.0 · RF
45
Range Runs-0.2 · RF
49
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.5 · RF
26
Bolts1.0 · RF
17
Sprint Speed28.1 · RF
72
SB Success Rate50.0% · RF
Limited
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 67.7% · rebadged research
61
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.9% · rebadged research
42
Correct Decisions68.6% · rebadged research
73
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline102
56
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.294 · borderline
borderline
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.293 · insufficient sample
insufficient sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.264 · validated thin sample
validated thin sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.325 · insufficient sample
insufficient sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.359 · validated
validated
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.372 · validated
validated

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.281 to 0.379
RegressionPositive · 0.023
Opposing pitcherDustin May
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-06-02
Palantir 3219 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.030 14d stable
Fangorn 3219 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Valinor 1176 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.013 14d error rising
Palantir 49 props Brier 0.228 ECE 0.190 sample building
Fangorn 13 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.139 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 194 props Brier 0.262 ECE 0.207 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 2 props Brier 0.560 ECE 0.748 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 40 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.040 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)