Mithrandir Metrics
TEX 2026-07-17 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-17

Brandon Nimmo

TEX · Hitter · bats L · age 33
IN · 3 Positive regression Neutral
MatchupTEX vs ATLChris Sale
Sample4069.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 15.9
F 14.5
V 13.0
Model 18.0% Market 14.9% Gap +2.5pp
FanDuel 545 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 54.6
F 60.9 EXPERIMENTAL
V 64.5 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 54.6% Market 73.3% Gap +10.0pp
FanDuel 125 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 18.9
F 16.5 EXPERIMENTAL
V -- in progress
PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes
Model 18.9% Market -- Gap +12.4pp
FanDuel 220 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%9.2%
92 +21 vs proj
Exit velocity92.8
95
Hard-hit%52.7%
96
xBA0.382
93
xSLG0.681
91
xwOBA0.379
96 +21 vs proj
BB%8.2%
45 -16 vs proj
Bat speed70.7
66
K%21.3%
57
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-1.5 · RF
12
Arm Strength91.8 · RF
41
Outs Above Avg-2.0 · RF
11
Range Runs-1.8 · RF
27
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.1 · RF
38
Bolts3.0 · RF
42
Sprint Speed28.0 · RF
68
SB Success Rate75.0% · RF
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 67.0%
58
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.2%
50
Correct Decisions68.7%
75
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline102
56
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.293 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.293 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.263
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.333 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.349
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.374
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.281 to 0.379
RegressionPositive · 0.026
Opposing pitcherChris Sale
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-17
Palantir 9390 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 9390 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.012 14d stable
Valinor 3795 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.007 14d stable
Palantir 453 props Brier 0.245 ECE 0.004 sample building
Fangorn 18 props Brier 0.243 ECE 0.080 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 3223 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.103 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 137 props Brier 0.153 ECE 0.025 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 328 props Brier 0.265 ECE 0.083 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)