Mithrandir Metrics
PHI 2026-08-31 Refreshed Aug 31 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-31

Trea Turner

PHI · Hitter
IN · 2 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupPHI vs AZBrandon Pfaadt
Sample5701.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.061, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.077, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.045, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.077, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 13.2
F 12.1
V 13.1
Model 19.5% Market 14.1% Gap +4.8pp
FanDuel 580 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 68.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 84.9% Market 85.9% Gap +17.5pp
BetMGM -610 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.4%
43
Exit velocity88.1
53
Hard-hit%39.0%
52
xBA0.317
49
xSLG0.476
41
xwOBA0.293
36 -32 vs proj
BB%6.4%
27
Bat speed70.0
56
K%21.6%
57 -21 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.2 · SS
76
Arm Strength85.9 · SS
40
Outs Above Avg-7.0 · SS
2
Range Runs-6.1 · SS
8
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs3.0 · SS
90
Bolts73.0 · SS
97
SB Success Rate88.2% · SS
76
Sprint Speed29.8 · SS
98
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 61.7%
31
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.9%
63
Correct Decisions64.6%
34
Resists FastballwOBA 0.383
4
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline98
38
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.257 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.274 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.272
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.319 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.341
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range--
RegressionNegative · -0.019
Opposing pitcherBrandon Pfaadt
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-08-31
Palantir 17748 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17748 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12111 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1556 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1052 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.017 14d error rising
Palantir 8442 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.048 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 663 props Brier 0.164 ECE 0.032 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 870 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.062 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)