Mithrandir Metrics
PHI 2026-09-04 Refreshed Sep 4 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-04

Trea Turner

PHI · Hitter · bats R · age 33
IN · 1 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupPHI vs ATLChris Sale
Sample5713.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.049, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 13.6
F 12.5
V 10.9
Model 20.1% Market 14.7% Gap +4.9pp
FanDuel 555 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 71.7
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 71.7% Market 87.2% Gap +19.1pp
FanDuel 115 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 29.7
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 29.7% Market -- Gap +0.9pp
FanDuel 230 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.5%
44
Exit velocity88.1
52
Hard-hit%39.2%
54
xBA0.317
48
xSLG0.477
41
xwOBA0.292
36 -31 vs proj
BB%6.4%
27
Bat speed70.0
56
K%21.8%
54 -24 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.2 · SS
74
Arm Strength85.9 · SS
41
Outs Above Avg-8.0 · SS
2
Range Runs-5.8 · SS
9
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs3.0 · SS
90
Bolts78.0 · SS
97
SB Success Rate88.2% · SS
76
Sprint Speed29.8 · SS
98
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 61.8%
31
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.9%
63
Correct Decisions64.4%
32
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.254 · small sample
97
Resists FastballwOBA 0.384
5
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline98
39
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.275 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.272
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.312 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.340
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.288 to 0.375
RegressionNegative · -0.016
Opposing pitcherChris Sale
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-04
Palantir 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 12714 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1629 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.007 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1125 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 8804 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 700 props Brier 0.165 ECE 0.033 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 922 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)