Mithrandir Metrics
CHC 2026-07-25 Refreshed Sep 3 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-25

Alex Bregman

CHC · Hitter · bats R · age 32
IN · 4 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupCHC vs PITPaul Skenes
Sample4987.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 15 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.043, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.046, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 12.8
F 12.2
V 15.1
Model 16.4% Market 14.6% Gap +1.3pp
FanDuel 560 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 63.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 77.5% Market 78.5% Gap +14.7pp
BetMGM -365 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 19.7
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 19.7% Market -- Gap +6.6pp
FanDuel 280 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.6%
28
Exit velocity88.3
52
Hard-hit%37.7%
43 -15 vs proj
xBA0.288
20
xSLG0.431
23
xwOBA0.305
50 -20 vs proj
BB%10.9%
75 +19 vs proj
Bat speed68.2
30
K%16.2%
84
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength82.0 · 3B
12
Outs Above Avg5.0 · 3B
91
Range Runs3.3 · 3B
81
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.3 · 3B
33
Sprint Speed26.1 · 3B
20
SB Success Rate100.0% · 3B
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.299 to 0.370
RegressionNegative · -0.040
Opposing pitcherPaul Skenes
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-03
Palantir 18276 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18276 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 12618 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1610 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1106 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 8710 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 690 props Brier 0.165 ECE 0.033 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 910 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.058 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)