Mithrandir Metrics
CHC 2026-08-31 Refreshed Aug 31 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-31

Alex Bregman

CHC · Hitter · bats R · age 32
IN · 3 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupCHC vs MILKyle Harrison
Sample5123.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.061, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.077, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.045, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.077, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 13.4
F 12.6
V 14.8
Model 20.9% Market 15.1% Gap +5.2pp
FanDuel 535 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 63.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 63.3% Market 79.8% Gap +15.4pp
FanDuel 125 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 27.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 27.2% Market -- Gap +1.6pp
FanDuel 260 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.2%
39
Exit velocity88.4
56
Hard-hit%38.2%
48
xBA0.298
27
xSLG0.454
32
xwOBA0.315
63
BB%10.6%
74 +18 vs proj
Bat speed68.2
31
K%15.7%
86
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength82.6 · 3B
13
Outs Above Avg7.0 · 3B
93
Range Runs4.6 · 3B
85
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.2 · 3B
47
Sprint Speed26.2 · 3B
22
SB Success Rate100.0% · 3B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 73.2%
88
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.2%
31
Correct Decisions68.5%
76
Resists FastballwOBA 0.339
46
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.358
47
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline106
78
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.296 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.271 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.300
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.360 · thin sample
thin sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.299 to 0.370
RegressionNegative · -0.050
Opposing pitcherKyle Harrison
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-08-31
Palantir 17748 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17748 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12111 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1556 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1052 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.017 14d error rising
Palantir 8442 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.048 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 663 props Brier 0.164 ECE 0.032 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 870 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.062 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)