Mithrandir Metrics
CHC 2026-09-04 Refreshed Sep 4 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-04

Alex Bregman

CHC · Hitter · bats R · age 32
IN · 5 Negative regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupCHC vs MIAJanson Junk
Sample5140.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.049, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 10.8
F 12.0
V 12.4
Model 16.3% Market 14.6% Gap +1.2pp
FanDuel 560 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 62.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 62.5% Market 78.5% Gap +15.6pp
FanDuel 145 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 28.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 28.3% Market -- Gap +4.9pp
FanDuel 290 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.7%
48
Exit velocity88.4
56
Hard-hit%38.8%
52
xBA0.298
28
xSLG0.459
34
xwOBA0.317
64
BB%10.3%
71
Bat speed68.2
31
K%15.4%
87
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength82.6 · 3B
15
Outs Above Avg7.0 · 3B
93
Range Runs5.6 · 3B
89
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.2 · 3B
48
Sprint Speed26.2 · 3B
22
SB Success Rate100.0% · 3B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 73.0%
87
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.1%
32
Correct Decisions68.5%
75
Resists FastballwOBA 0.345
35
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.354
60
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline106
77
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.312 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.272 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.303
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.361 · thin sample
thin sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.299 to 0.370
RegressionNegative · -0.056
Opposing pitcherJanson Junk
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-04
Palantir 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 12714 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1629 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.007 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1125 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 8804 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 700 props Brier 0.165 ECE 0.033 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 922 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)