Mithrandir Metrics
CHC 2026-09-04 Refreshed Sep 4 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-04

Carson Kelly

CHC · Hitter · bats R · age 32
IN · 7 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupCHC vs MIAJanson Junk
Sample2291.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.049, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 46.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 46.2% Market 65.5% Gap +11.0pp
FanDuel 180 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 15.7
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 15.7% Market -- Gap +5.1pp
FanDuel 380 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.4%
42
Exit velocity87.4
45
Hard-hit%37.4%
45
xBA0.297
27
xSLG0.464
35
xwOBA0.315
61 +26 vs proj
BB%10.3%
71 +18 vs proj
Bat speed69.5
47
K%16.0%
85 +27 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs1.5 · C
92
Catcher Throwing-1.9 · C
11
Framing Runs1.9 · C
71
Pop Time2.0 · C
38
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed25.8 · C
14
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 69.8%
72
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.0%
80
Correct Decisions70.4%
87
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline108
84
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.289 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.266 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.314
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.358 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.351
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.366
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.273 to 0.338
RegressionNegative · -0.051
Opposing pitcherJanson Junk
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-04
Palantir 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 12714 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1629 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.007 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1125 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 8804 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 700 props Brier 0.165 ECE 0.033 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 922 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)