Mithrandir Metrics
TEX 2026-08-03 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-03

Corey Seager

TEX · Hitter · bats L · age 32
IN · 3 Positive regression Neutral
MatchupTEX vs SFLogan Webb
Sample4541.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 23 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 13.1
F 13.2
V 14.3
Model 20.1% Market 22.5% Gap -2.3pp
BetMGM 345 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 67.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 81.7% Market 82.8% Gap +15.2pp
BetMGM -480 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%9.7%
96
Exit velocity91.7
91
Hard-hit%47.9%
88
xBA0.328
61
xSLG0.649
88
xwOBA0.332
76 -20 vs proj
BB%12.6%
88
Bat speed70.0
57
K%27.5%
23 -50 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength85.4 · SS
39
Outs Above Avg1.0 · SS
69
Range Runs0.0 · SS
51
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed25.0 · SS
5
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 66.2%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 14.8%
Small sample
Correct Decisions71.6%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.258 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.293 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.300
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.357 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.320
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.329
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline110
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.315 to 0.416
RegressionPositive · 0.008
Opposing pitcherLogan Webb
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)