Mithrandir Metrics
SEA 2026-07-19 Refreshed Jul 21 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-19

Rob Refsnyder

SEA · Hitter · bats R · age 35
IN · 2 Positive regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupSEA vs SFRobbie Ray
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 23 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.109, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Valinor calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.080, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.059, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.077, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 13.8
F 15.5
V 13.4
Model 15.1% Market 12.2% Gap +2.5pp
DraftKings 695 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 63.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 72.5% Market 73.7% Gap +10.2pp
BetMGM -280 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.4%
41
Exit velocity85.3
20
Hard-hit%33.7%
27 -34 vs proj
xBA0.244
2
xSLG0.418
18
xwOBA0.249
7 -26 vs proj
BB%6.6%
27 -38 vs proj
Bat speed69.4
46
K%27.9%
23
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · RF
22
Arm Runs-0.2 · RF
Small sample
Range Runs-0.5 · RF
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.9 · DH
37
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 72.0%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.3%
Small sample
Correct Decisions69.5%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.288 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.275 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.273
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.312 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.301
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.341
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline106
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.232 to 0.338
RegressionPositive · 0.017
Opposing pitcherRobbie Ray
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-21
Palantir 10338 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.008 14d error falling
Fangorn 10338 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.009 14d error falling
Valinor 4743 props Brier 0.121 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 860 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.035 14d error rising
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 356 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.041 14d error rising
Palantir 4739 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.076 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 288 props Brier 0.176 ECE 0.047 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 462 props Brier 0.260 ECE 0.055 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)