Mithrandir Metrics
SEA 2026-09-11 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-11

Rob Refsnyder

SEA · Hitter
OUT · 2 Positive regression Neutral
MatchupSEA vs ATHJeffrey Springs
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 23 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.063, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.062, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 13.2
F 13.4
V 11.6
Model 16.9% Market 12.2% Gap +4.3pp
DraftKings 695 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 59.7
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 72.5% Market 73.7% Gap +13.9pp
BetMGM -280 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.5%
60
Exit velocity85.8
27
Hard-hit%34.5%
31
xBA0.252
5
xSLG0.470
39
xwOBA0.255
11
BB%6.8%
32
Bat speed69.5
48
K%29.5%
18
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · RF
24
Arm Runs-0.3 · RF
Small sample
Range Runs-0.5 · RF
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.0 · DH
38
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 72.0%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.3%
Small sample
Correct Decisions69.5%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.289 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.275 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.272
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.307 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.301
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.339
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline107
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range--
RegressionPositive · 0.010
Opposing pitcherJeffrey Springs
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-11
Palantir 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 13965 props Brier 0.113 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 1750 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1246 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.020 14d stable
Palantir 9432 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.046 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 756 props Brier 0.167 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 986 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.054 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)