Mithrandir Metrics
CHC 2026-05-25 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-05-25

Dansby Swanson

CHC · Hitter · bats R · age 32
IN · 9 Negative regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupCHC vs PITCarmen Mlodzinski
Sample4901.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 12.6
F 14.2
V 10.7
Model 15.4% Market 13.0% Gap +2.0pp
DraftKings 645 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 33.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 33.8% Market 58.3% Gap +0.6pp
FanDuel 390 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 64.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 64.0% Market -- Gap +2.5pp
FanDuel -160 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.1%
48 -19 vs proj
Exit velocity89.9
66
Hard-hit%46.0%
76
xBA0.288
20
xSLG0.525
53
xwOBA0.312
50 -17 vs proj
BB%11.1%
72 +29 vs proj
Bat speed68.9
39
K%22.7%
46
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.2 · SS
80
Arm Strength85.1 · SS
46
Outs Above Avg4.0 · SS
93
Range Runs3.2 · SS
88
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.7 · SS
93
Bolts1.0 · SS
17
Sprint Speed28.0 · SS
70
SB Success Rate100.0% · SS
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 50.0%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 42.9%
Small sample
Correct Decisions63.2%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.247 · small sample
small sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.334
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.363
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline87
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.281 to 0.377
RegressionNegative · -0.006
Opposing pitcherCarmen Mlodzinski
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)