Mithrandir Metrics
CHC 2026-05-29 Refreshed Sep 3 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-05-29

Dansby Swanson

CHC · Hitter
IN · 6 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupCHC vs STLAndre Pallante
Sample4914.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.043, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.046, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 16.0
F 14.2
V 14.2
Model 16.1% Market 13.2% Gap +2.5pp
DraftKings 635 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 57.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 57.5% Market 71.4% Gap +2.4pp
FanDuel 185 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 2.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 2.0% Market -- Gap +2.3pp
FanDuel 15000 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.8%
45 -24 vs proj
Exit velocity89.6
63
Hard-hit%44.5%
70
xBA0.283
18
xSLG0.511
50
xwOBA0.307
47 -22 vs proj
BB%11.4%
76 +32 vs proj
Bat speed68.9
40
K%22.8%
45
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.2 · SS
82
Arm Strength85.1 · SS
45
Outs Above Avg5.0 · SS
96
Range Runs3.6 · SS
89
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.7 · SS
93
Bolts1.0 · SS
17
Sprint Speed28.1 · SS
72
SB Success Rate100.0% · SS
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 70.8%
76
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 18.5%
93
Correct Decisions71.6%
92
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline112
93
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.264 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.270 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.247
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.324 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.355
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.388
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range--
RegressionNegative · -0.019
Opposing pitcherAndre Pallante
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-03
Palantir 18276 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18276 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 12618 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1610 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1106 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 8710 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 690 props Brier 0.165 ECE 0.033 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 910 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.058 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)