Mithrandir Metrics
CHC 2026-07-19 Refreshed Jul 20 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-19

Dansby Swanson

CHC · Hitter · bats R · age 32
IN · 9 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupCHC vs MINZebby Matthews
Sample5052.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.097, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Valinor calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.076, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.082, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 14.3
F 13.6
V 11.0
Model 17.4% Market 13.2% Gap +3.8pp
DraftKings 635 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 56.7
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 56.7% Market 74.7% Gap +10.3pp
FanDuel 165 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 21.7
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 21.7% Market -- Gap +2.1pp
FanDuel 410 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.8%
45 -24 vs proj
Exit velocity89.9
72
Hard-hit%43.7%
70
xBA0.291
21
xSLG0.523
55
xwOBA0.298
42 -31 vs proj
BB%9.8%
65 +17 vs proj
Bat speed69.6
49
K%24.1%
41
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.2 · SS
74
Arm Strength85.6 · SS
43
Outs Above Avg9.0 · SS
98
Range Runs7.1 · SS
98
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs3.4 · SS
95
Bolts1.0 · SS
15
SB Success Rate100.0% · SS
93
Sprint Speed28.3 · SS
77
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 71.4%
80
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 18.7%
92
Correct Decisions72.1%
92
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline112
94
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.283 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.265 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.278
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.340 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.375
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.378
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.281 to 0.377
RegressionNegative · -0.040
Opposing pitcherZebby Matthews
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-20
Palantir 10059 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 10059 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Valinor 4464 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Palantir 860 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.035 14d error rising
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 356 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.041 14d stable
Palantir 4739 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.076 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 288 props Brier 0.176 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 462 props Brier 0.260 ECE 0.055 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)