Mithrandir Metrics
CHC 2026-08-05 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-05

Dansby Swanson

CHC · Hitter
IN · 8 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupCHC vs LADEric Lauer
Sample5106.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 14.0
F 13.9
V 9.8
Model 19.3% Market 13.6% Gap +5.1pp
FanDuel 605 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 62.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 75.5% Market 76.5% Gap +13.9pp
BetMGM -325 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 23.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 23.2% Market -- Gap +1.8pp
FanDuel 300 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.8%
47 -23 vs proj
Exit velocity89.5
69
Hard-hit%42.8%
69
xBA0.301
27
xSLG0.526
58
xwOBA0.302
45 -31 vs proj
BB%9.5%
62
Bat speed69.7
51
K%23.6%
43
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.1 · SS
62
Arm Strength88.0 · SS
60
Outs Above Avg10.0 · SS
98
Range Runs8.8 · SS
97
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs4.4 · SS
97
Bolts1.0 · SS
15
SB Success Rate100.0% · SS
94
Sprint Speed28.4 · SS
79
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 71.6%
81
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 19.1%
90
Correct Decisions72.2%
92
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline111
92
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.282 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.263 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.274
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.336 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.382
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.379
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range--
RegressionNegative · -0.034
Opposing pitcherEric Lauer
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)