Mithrandir Metrics
CHC 2026-08-17 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-17

Dansby Swanson

CHC · Hitter · bats R · age 32
IL10 · 6 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupCHC vs CWSLuis Castillo
Sample5135.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 13.2
F 13.1
V 10.9
Model 17.2% Market 13.2% Gap +3.6pp
DraftKings 635 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 61.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 73.7% Market 74.7% Gap +13.5pp
BetMGM -295 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.6%
45 -25 vs proj
Exit velocity89.4
68
Hard-hit%41.4%
63
xBA0.297
25
xSLG0.515
54
xwOBA0.298
41 -35 vs proj
BB%9.4%
61
Bat speed69.6
49
K%23.4%
44
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.1 · SS
56
Arm Strength88.0 · SS
57
Outs Above Avg16.0 · SS
99
Range Runs12.0 · SS
98
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs4.1 · SS
95
Bolts1.0 · SS
13
SB Success Rate92.9% · SS
83
Sprint Speed28.3 · SS
75
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 72.1%
83
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 18.7%
93
Correct Decisions72.8%
95
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline113
94
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.285 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.261 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.281
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.328 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.378
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.369
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.281 to 0.377
RegressionNegative · -0.032
Opposing pitcherLuis Castillo
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)