Mithrandir Metrics
HOU 2026-07-17 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-17

Carlos Correa

HOU · Hitter · bats R · age 32
IL60 · 6 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupHOU vs BALDean Kremer
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 13.7
F 14.5
V 11.8
Model 17.3% Market 11.1% Gap +5.8pp
DraftKings 770 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 65.3
F 65.9 EXPERIMENTAL
V 64.9 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 74.9% Market 75.9% Gap +10.6pp
BetMGM -315 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.7%
76
Exit velocity89.1
61
Hard-hit%40.2%
55 -19 vs proj
xBA0.367
87
xSLG0.583
72
xwOBA0.364
91 +18 vs proj
BB%13.4%
91 +46 vs proj
Bat speed71.9
78
K%18.1%
73
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.0 · SS
37
Arm Strength91.8 · SS
84
Outs Above Avg1.0 · SS
68
Range Runs0.8 · SS
59
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.2 · SS
44
SB Success Rate100.0% · SS
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 64.1%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.5%
Small sample
Correct Decisions62.5%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.304 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.299 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.279
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.336 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.341
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.361
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline97
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.298 to 0.372
RegressionNegative · -0.015
Opposing pitcherDean Kremer
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-17
Palantir 9390 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 9390 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.012 14d stable
Valinor 3795 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.007 14d stable
Palantir 453 props Brier 0.245 ECE 0.004 sample building
Fangorn 18 props Brier 0.243 ECE 0.080 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 3223 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.103 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 137 props Brier 0.153 ECE 0.025 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 328 props Brier 0.265 ECE 0.083 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)