Mithrandir Metrics
HOU 2026-08-09 Refreshed Sep 3 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-09

Carlos Correa

HOU · Hitter
IL60 · 6 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupHOU vs SDRandy Vásquez
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 15 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.043, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.046, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 12.0
F 13.2
V 9.0
Model 15.2% Market 11.1% Gap +3.7pp
DraftKings 770 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 62.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 74.9% Market 75.9% Gap +13.8pp
BetMGM -315 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.7%
76
Exit velocity89.1
62
Hard-hit%40.2%
57 -20 vs proj
xBA0.367
89
xSLG0.583
74
xwOBA0.364
94 +17 vs proj
BB%13.4%
91 +45 vs proj
Bat speed71.9
79
K%18.1%
75
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.0 · SS
37
Arm Strength91.8 · SS
81
Outs Above Avg1.0 · SS
70
Range Runs0.8 · SS
62
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.2 · SS
45
SB Success Rate100.0% · SS
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range--
RegressionNegative · -0.015
Opposing pitcherRandy Vásquez
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-03
Palantir 18276 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18276 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 12618 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1610 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1106 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 8710 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 690 props Brier 0.165 ECE 0.033 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 910 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.058 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)