Mithrandir Metrics
HOU 2026-09-11 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-11

Carlos Correa

HOU · Hitter · bats R · age 32
IL60 · 6 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupHOU vs TBDrew Rasmussen
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.063, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.062, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 10.2
F 12.0
V 7.8
Model 15.0% Market 11.1% Gap +3.5pp
DraftKings 770 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 59.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 72.8% Market 73.7% Gap +13.8pp
BetMGM -280 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.7%
77
Exit velocity89.1
64
Hard-hit%40.2%
58 -20 vs proj
xBA0.367
92
xSLG0.583
76
xwOBA0.364
95 +18 vs proj
BB%13.4%
94 +47 vs proj
Bat speed71.9
78
K%18.1%
77
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.0 · SS
34
Arm Strength91.8 · SS
82
Outs Above Avg1.0 · SS
72
Range Runs0.8 · SS
61
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.2 · SS
44
SB Success Rate100.0% · SS
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 64.1%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.5%
Small sample
Correct Decisions62.5%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.305 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.299 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.278
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.330 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.342
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.359
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline97
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.298 to 0.372
RegressionNegative · -0.015
Opposing pitcherDrew Rasmussen
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-11
Palantir 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 13965 props Brier 0.113 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 1750 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1246 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.020 14d stable
Palantir 9432 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.046 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 756 props Brier 0.167 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 986 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.054 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)