Mithrandir Metrics
MIN 2026-07-17 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-17

Byron Buxton

MIN · Hitter · bats R · age 33
IN · 3 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupMIN vs CHCColin Rea
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 17.3
F 14.7
V 15.1
Model 20.0% Market 20.5% Gap -1.3pp
DraftKings 370 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 65.2
F 65.8 EXPERIMENTAL
V 64.8 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 74.9% Market 75.9% Gap +10.7pp
BetMGM -315 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%13.0%
100
Exit velocity90.8
84
Hard-hit%48.0%
86
xBA0.343
72
xSLG0.709
95
xwOBA0.351
85
BB%7.2%
33
Bat speed72.5
83
K%24.9%
36
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-1.2 · CF
14
Arm Strength95.9 · CF
72
Outs Above Avg4.0 · CF
95
Range Runs3.3 · CF
84
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.1 · CF
45
Bolts32.0 · CF
90
Sprint Speed29.9 · CF
99
SB Success Rate100.0% · CF
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 60.8%
28
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.8%
79
Correct Decisions66.1%
49
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline100
43
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.284 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.290 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.268
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.387 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.384
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.363
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.299 to 0.365
RegressionNegative · -0.048
Opposing pitcherColin Rea
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-17
Palantir 9390 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 9390 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.012 14d stable
Valinor 3795 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.007 14d stable
Palantir 453 props Brier 0.245 ECE 0.004 sample building
Fangorn 18 props Brier 0.243 ECE 0.080 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 3223 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.103 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 137 props Brier 0.153 ECE 0.025 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 328 props Brier 0.265 ECE 0.083 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)