Mithrandir Metrics
MIN 2026-08-02 Refreshed Sep 3 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-02

Byron Buxton

MIN · Hitter
IL10 · 3 Negative regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupMIN vs SEAGeorge Kirby
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 17 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.043, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.046, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 10.8
F 13.2
V 13.9
Model 14.7% Market 20.5% Gap +3.0pp
DraftKings 370 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 61.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 74.3% Market 75.3% Gap +13.7pp
BetMGM -305 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%12.4%
100
Exit velocity90.4
82
Hard-hit%47.8%
86
xBA0.342
74
xSLG0.694
94
xwOBA0.348
85
BB%7.0%
33
Bat speed72.6
85
K%24.5%
39 +16 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-1.4 · CF
19
Arm Strength95.9 · CF
72
Outs Above Avg3.0 · CF
93
Range Runs2.5 · CF
77
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.2 · CF
46
Bolts33.0 · CF
90
Sprint Speed29.8 · CF
98
SB Success Rate100.0% · CF
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range--
RegressionNegative · -0.038
Opposing pitcherGeorge Kirby
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-03
Palantir 18276 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18276 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 12618 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1610 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1106 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 8710 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 690 props Brier 0.165 ECE 0.033 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 910 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.058 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)