Mithrandir Metrics
BAL 2026-06-12 Refreshed Jun 15 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-06-12

Taylor Ward

BAL · Hitter · bats R · age 33
IN · 1 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupBAL vs SDGriffin Canning
Sample2745.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 22.2
F 17.9
V 17.9
Model 21.0% Market 17.2% Gap +3.1pp
FanDuel 460 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 61.3
F 73.9 EXPERIMENTAL
V 72.9 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 61.3% Market 70.9% Gap +2.5pp
FanDuel 120 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 20.9
F 21.5 EXPERIMENTAL
V -- in progress
PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes
Model 20.9% Market -- Gap +9.4pp
FanDuel 230 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%2.8%
21 -48 vs proj
Exit velocity89.6
65
Hard-hit%41.7%
59
xBA0.344
70
xSLG0.503
47
xwOBA0.355
81
BB%19.1%
99 +34 vs proj
Bat speed66.0
11
K%20.1%
61 +27 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-1.5 · LF
14
Arm Strength88.8 · LF
18
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · LF
21
Range Runs-1.0 · LF
39
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-2.5 · LF
0
Sprint Speed27.4 · LF
52
SB Success Rate33.3% · LF
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 83.2%
99
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 31.5%
10
Correct Decisions68.7%
75
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline111
92
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.278 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.278 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.289
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.341 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.357
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.376
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.284 to 0.367
RegressionNegative · -0.007
Opposing pitcherGriffin Canning
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-06-14
Palantir 5634 props Brier 0.126 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 5634 props Brier 0.126 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 1176 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.013 sample building
Palantir 49 props Brier 0.228 ECE 0.190 sample building
Fangorn 13 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.139 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 194 props Brier 0.262 ECE 0.207 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 2 props Brier 0.560 ECE 0.748 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 40 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.040 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)