Mithrandir Metrics
BAL 2026-07-19 Refreshed Jul 20 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-19

Taylor Ward

BAL · Hitter · bats R · age 33
IN · 2 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupBAL vs HOUHunter Brown
Sample2858.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.097, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Valinor calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.076, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.082, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 17.0
F 15.5
V 16.5
Model 20.4% Market 17.2% Gap +2.5pp
FanDuel 460 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 59.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 59.4% Market 72.6% Gap +9.7pp
FanDuel 155 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 18.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 18.1% Market -- Gap +6.3pp
FanDuel 310 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.6%
27 -47 vs proj
Exit velocity89.4
66
Hard-hit%39.6%
52 -20 vs proj
xBA0.340
68
xSLG0.518
52
xwOBA0.349
84
BB%17.1%
99 +32 vs proj
Bat speed66.2
13
K%20.7%
61 +24 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-1.2 · LF
15
Arm Strength92.3 · LF
45
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · LF
22
Range Runs-0.9 · LF
39
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-4.0 · LF
1
Sprint Speed27.4 · LF
51
SB Success Rate25.0% · LF
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 81.8%
99
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 31.5%
11
Correct Decisions68.5%
73
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline110
89
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.265 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.278 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.284
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.340 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.367
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.379
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.284 to 0.367
RegressionNegative · -0.006
Opposing pitcherHunter Brown
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-20
Palantir 10059 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 10059 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Valinor 4464 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Palantir 860 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.035 14d error rising
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 356 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.041 14d stable
Palantir 4739 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.076 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 288 props Brier 0.176 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 462 props Brier 0.260 ECE 0.055 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)