Mithrandir Metrics
BAL 2026-08-31 Refreshed Aug 31 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-31

Taylor Ward

BAL · Hitter · bats R · age 33
IN · 6 Positive regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupBAL vs COLTanner Gordon
Sample2966.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.061, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.077, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.045, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.077, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 15.3
F 12.6
V 13.6
Model 20.7% Market 17.2% Gap +2.8pp
FanDuel 460 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 61.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 61.4% Market 74.4% Gap +13.8pp
FanDuel 135 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 24.7
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 24.7% Market -- Gap +1.4pp
FanDuel 290 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.3%
27 -50 vs proj
Exit velocity89.0
63
Hard-hit%38.7%
51 -26 vs proj
xBA0.330
63
xSLG0.497
50
xwOBA0.338
83
BB%16.4%
99 +33 vs proj
Bat speed66.6
17
K%21.2%
59 +22 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.2 · LF
49
Arm Strength92.3 · LF
42
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · LF
22
Range Runs-1.3 · LF
33
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-4.1 · LF
2
SB Success Rate40.0% · LF
1
Sprint Speed27.6 · LF
54
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 81.5%
99
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 31.7%
10
Correct Decisions68.5%
76
Resists FastballwOBA 0.360
18
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline110
90
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.261 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.266 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.277
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.327 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.366
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.273 to 0.353
RegressionPositive · 0.009
Opposing pitcherTanner Gordon
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-08-31
Palantir 17748 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17748 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12111 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1556 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1052 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.017 14d error rising
Palantir 8442 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.048 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 663 props Brier 0.164 ECE 0.032 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 870 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.062 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)