Mithrandir Metrics
ATL 2026-06-02 Refreshed Jun 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-06-02

Matt Olson

ATL · Hitter · bats L · age 32
IN · 2 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupATL vs TORKevin Gausman
Sample4730.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 16.6
F 14.2
V 14.2
Model 17.8% Market 21.7% Gap -4.0pp
BetMGM 360 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 69.8
F 81.5 EXPERIMENTAL
V 80.3 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 69.8% Market 77.6% Gap +2.7pp
FanDuel 110 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%9.9%
64
Barrel%10.9%
96
Bat speed72.7
86
Exit velocity93.4
96
Hard-hit%52.1%
94
K%22.9%
44
xBA0.359
80
xSLG0.749
95
xwOBA0.382
92
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg7.0 · 1B
98
Range Runs4.6 · 1B
95
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.5 · 1B
29
Sprint Speed25.3 · 1B
9
SB Success Rate100.0% · 1B
Limited
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 69.9% · rebadged research
72
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.3% · rebadged research
48
Correct Decisions68.7% · rebadged research
74
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline104
70
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.319 · borderline
borderline
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.276 · insufficient sample
insufficient sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.260 · validated thin sample
validated thin sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.348 · insufficient sample
insufficient sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.366 · validated
validated
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.377 · validated
validated

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.298 to 0.407
RegressionNegative · -0.031
Opposing pitcherKevin Gausman
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-06-01
Palantir 3096 props Brier 0.126 ECE 0.030 14d stable
Fangorn 3096 props Brier 0.126 ECE 0.009 14d error falling
Valinor 1176 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 49 props Brier 0.228 ECE 0.190 sample building
Fangorn 13 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.139 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 194 props Brier 0.262 ECE 0.207 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 2 props Brier 0.560 ECE 0.748 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 40 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.040 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)