Mithrandir Metrics
ATL 2026-09-04 Refreshed Sep 4 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-04

Matt Olson

ATL · Hitter · bats L · age 32
IN · 2 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupATL vs PHICristopher Sánchez
Sample5040.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.049, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 12.3
F 12.0
V 14.0
Model 18.3% Market 20.8% Gap -2.5pp
BetMGM 380 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 66.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 66.5% Market 79.0% Gap +15.9pp
FanDuel 150 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 26.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 26.1% Market -- Gap +3.4pp
FanDuel 330 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%10.0%
98
Exit velocity92.7
96
Hard-hit%50.7%
94
xBA0.347
80
xSLG0.720
96
xwOBA0.357
93
BB%9.4%
61 -25 vs proj
Bat speed72.9
89
K%25.5%
35
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg7.0 · 1B
93
Range Runs4.8 · 1B
87
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.0 · 1B
43
Sprint Speed25.4 · 1B
9
SB Success Rate100.0% · 1B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 69.1%
68
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.4%
58
Correct Decisions68.5%
74
Resists FastballwOBA 0.318
86
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline105
71
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.315 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.275 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.263
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.360 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.405
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.298 to 0.407
RegressionNegative · -0.025
Opposing pitcherCristopher Sánchez
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-04
Palantir 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 12714 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1629 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.007 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1125 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 8804 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 700 props Brier 0.165 ECE 0.033 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 922 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)