Mithrandir Metrics
BAL 2026-07-19 Refreshed Jul 20 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-19

Pete Alonso

BAL · Hitter · bats R · age 32
IN · 4 Positive regression Neutral
MatchupBAL vs HOUHunter Brown
Sample4130.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.097, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Valinor calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.076, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.082, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 16.3
F 13.6
V 17.1
Model 21.3% Market 22.4% Gap -1.7pp
DraftKings 330 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 66.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 66.5% Market 76.5% Gap +10.7pp
FanDuel 130 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 19.7
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 19.7% Market -- Gap +5.3pp
FanDuel 300 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%8.1%
86
Exit velocity94.0
98
Hard-hit%55.8%
99 +15 vs proj
xBA0.381
93
xSLG0.721
95
xwOBA0.376
95
BB%11.9%
84 +27 vs proj
Bat speed73.1
90
K%24.9%
37
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg3.0 · 1B
84
Range Runs2.4 · 1B
75
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.3 · 1B
13
Sprint Speed25.2 · 1B
7
SB Success Rate100.0% · 1B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 70.7%
77
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.8%
63
Correct Decisions68.7%
75
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline107
79
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.281 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.271 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.297
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.324 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.341
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.378
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.312 to 0.424
RegressionPositive · 0.006
Opposing pitcherHunter Brown
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-20
Palantir 10059 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 10059 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Valinor 4464 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Palantir 860 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.035 14d error rising
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 356 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.041 14d stable
Palantir 4739 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.076 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 288 props Brier 0.176 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 462 props Brier 0.260 ECE 0.055 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)