Mithrandir Metrics
BAL 2026-09-04 Refreshed Sep 4 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-04

Pete Alonso

BAL · Hitter · bats R · age 32
IN · 2 Positive regression Neutral
MatchupBAL vs BOSRanger Suarez
Sample4291.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.049, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 13.5
F 12.0
V 16.3
Model 19.9% Market 23.8% Gap -4.0pp
BetMGM 320 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 68.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 68.5% Market 78.7% Gap +15.8pp
FanDuel 110 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 24.7
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 24.7% Market -- Gap +3.1pp
FanDuel 260 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%9.1%
95
Exit velocity94.3
99
Hard-hit%57.8%
99
xBA0.394
97
xSLG0.757
98
xwOBA0.395
99
BB%11.2%
80 +21 vs proj
Bat speed73.0
89
K%24.0%
44
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg1.0 · 1B
72
Range Runs1.7 · 1B
71
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-3.5 · 1B
4
Sprint Speed25.1 · 1B
6
SB Success Rate75.0% · 1B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 69.4%
70
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.2%
70
Correct Decisions68.8%
77
Resists FastballwOBA 0.380
6
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline106
78
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.291 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.274 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.292
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.308 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.388
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.312 to 0.424
RegressionPositive · 0.007
Opposing pitcherRanger Suarez
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-04
Palantir 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 12714 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1629 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.007 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1125 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 8804 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 700 props Brier 0.165 ECE 0.033 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 922 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)