Mithrandir Metrics
MIL 2026-07-17 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-17

Jake Bauers

MIL · Hitter · bats L · age 31
IN · 5 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupMIL vs MIASandy Alcantara
Sample1999.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 46.3
F 52.6 EXPERIMENTAL
V 56.0 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 46.3% Market 61.5% Gap +7.2pp
FanDuel 125 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 11.1
F 9.3 EXPERIMENTAL
V -- in progress
PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes
Model 11.1% Market -- Gap +12.9pp
FanDuel 340 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%9.3%
93 +31 vs proj
Exit velocity92.9
96
Hard-hit%54.8%
98 +26 vs proj
xBA0.371
89
xSLG0.690
93
xwOBA0.366
92 +42 vs proj
BB%13.4%
91 +19 vs proj
Bat speed74.6
97
K%25.2%
35 +18 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.6 · 1B
6
Arm Strength92.6 · 1B
87
Outs Above Avg-6.0 · 1B
5
Range Runs-5.4 · 1B
7
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.8 · 1B
85
SB Success Rate83.3% · 1B
57
Sprint Speed27.0 · 1B
40
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 72.8%
87
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.0%
53
Correct Decisions69.4%
82
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline107
83
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.325 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.268 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.293
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.347 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.380
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.357
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.256 to 0.374
RegressionNegative · -0.059
Opposing pitcherSandy Alcantara
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-17
Palantir 9390 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 9390 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.012 14d stable
Valinor 3795 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.007 14d stable
Palantir 453 props Brier 0.245 ECE 0.004 sample building
Fangorn 18 props Brier 0.243 ECE 0.080 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 3223 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.103 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 137 props Brier 0.153 ECE 0.025 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 328 props Brier 0.265 ECE 0.083 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)