Mithrandir Metrics
MIL 2026-07-19 Refreshed Jul 20 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-19

Jake Bauers

MIL · Hitter · bats L · age 31
IN · 5 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupMIL vs MIAEury Pérez
Sample2007.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.097, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Valinor calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.076, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.082, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 46.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 46.5% Market 61.5% Gap +7.2pp
FanDuel 160 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 8.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 8.8% Market -- Gap +11.9pp
FanDuel 490 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%9.2%
92
Exit velocity92.9
96
Hard-hit%54.8%
98
xBA0.371
89
xSLG0.690
93
xwOBA0.365
91
BB%13.8%
93
Bat speed74.6
97
K%25.7%
33
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.6 · 1B
7
Arm Strength92.6 · 1B
87
Outs Above Avg-7.0 · 1B
3
Range Runs-5.3 · 1B
7
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.8 · 1B
85
SB Success Rate83.3% · 1B
56
Sprint Speed27.0 · 1B
40
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 72.8%
87
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.0%
53
Correct Decisions69.4%
82
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline107
83
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.325 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.268 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.293
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.347 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.380
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.357
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.256 to 0.374
RegressionNegative · -0.058
Opposing pitcherEury Pérez
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-20
Palantir 10059 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 10059 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Valinor 4464 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Palantir 860 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.035 14d error rising
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 356 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.041 14d stable
Palantir 4739 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.076 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 288 props Brier 0.176 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 462 props Brier 0.260 ECE 0.055 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)