Mithrandir Metrics
MIL 2026-08-31 Refreshed Aug 31 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-31

Jake Bauers

MIL · Hitter · bats L · age 31
IN · 3 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupMIL vs CHCClay Holmes
Sample2114.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.061, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.077, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.045, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.077, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 46.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 46.4% Market 61.5% Gap +10.5pp
FanDuel 125 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 10.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 10.9% Market -- Gap +14.8pp
FanDuel 290 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%8.6%
91 +27 vs proj
Exit velocity92.8
97
Hard-hit%54.7%
98 +21 vs proj
xBA0.374
94
xSLG0.691
94
xwOBA0.371
97 +43 vs proj
BB%14.9%
98 +25 vs proj
Bat speed74.5
96
K%25.5%
34 +15 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.7 · 1B
8
Arm Strength92.6 · 1B
87
Outs Above Avg-7.0 · 1B
2
Range Runs-7.1 · 1B
6
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs2.4 · 1B
86
SB Success Rate72.7% · 1B
29
Sprint Speed27.0 · 1B
39
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 72.4%
85
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.6%
46
Correct Decisions68.8%
78
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline107
81
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.332 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.266 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.291
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.327 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.381
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.361
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.256 to 0.374
RegressionNegative · -0.046
Opposing pitcherClay Holmes
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-08-31
Palantir 17748 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17748 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12111 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1556 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1052 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.017 14d error rising
Palantir 8442 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.048 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 663 props Brier 0.164 ECE 0.032 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 870 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.062 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)