Mithrandir Metrics
MIL 2026-10-24 Refreshed Oct 26 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-10-24

Jake Bauers

MIL · Hitter · bats L · age 31
IN · 2 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupMIL vs TBDrew Rasmussen
Sample2181.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 22 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Home Runs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.121, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Home Runs · Fangorn calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.124, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Home Runs · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.120, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 50.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 60.6% Market 61.5% Gap +11.1pp
BetMGM -160 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 2.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 2.0% Market -- Gap +9.5pp
FanDuel 3500 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%8.2%
90 +25 vs proj
Exit velocity92.3
95
Hard-hit%52.6%
97 +20 vs proj
xBA0.377
96
xSLG0.694
95
xwOBA0.369
96 +41 vs proj
BB%16.2%
99 +24 vs proj
Bat speed74.3
96
K%27.2%
27
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.9 · 1B
5
Arm Strength92.6 · 1B
86
Outs Above Avg-5.0 · 1B
9
Range Runs-6.2 · 1B
10
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs2.1 · 1B
79
SB Success Rate66.7% · 1B
20
Sprint Speed26.9 · 1B
35
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Resists FastballwOBA 0.393
4
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.323 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.270 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.282
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.329 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.372
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.256 to 0.374
RegressionNegative · -0.039
Opposing pitcherDrew Rasmussen
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-10-26
Palantir 22485 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.004 14d error rising
Fangorn 22485 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.005 14d error rising
Valinor 16797 props Brier 0.114 ECE 0.002 14d error rising
Palantir 2000 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 sample building
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1496 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 sample building
Palantir 10922 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.042 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 889 props Brier 0.170 ECE 0.040 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 1106 props Brier 0.255 ECE 0.052 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)