Mithrandir Metrics
NYY 2026-05-26 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-05-26

Cody Bellinger

NYY · Hitter
IN · 3 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupNYY vs KCBailey Falter
Sample4420.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 13.6
F 17.2
V 12.9
Model 19.2% Market 16.2% Gap +2.4pp
FanDuel 495 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 67.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 67.2% Market 79.1% Gap +2.7pp
FanDuel -105 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.3%
53
Exit velocity89.9
68
Hard-hit%39.7%
46 +22 vs proj
xBA0.347
74
xSLG0.557
64
xwOBA0.382
92 +38 vs proj
BB%14.0%
90 +50 vs proj
Bat speed68.8
37
K%12.8%
93
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs1.5 · LF
91
Arm Strength97.8 · LF
89
Outs Above Avg2.0 · LF
91
Range Runs1.5 · LF
72
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.3 · LF
33
Sprint Speed27.7 · LF
62
SB Success Rate50.0% · LF
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 65.2%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 16.7%
Small sample
Correct Decisions71.1%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.255 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.262 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.288
Small sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.343
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.361
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline104
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range--
RegressionNegative · -0.011
Opposing pitcherBailey Falter
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)