Mithrandir Metrics
NYY 2026-09-04 Refreshed Sep 4 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-04

Cody Bellinger

NYY · Hitter · bats L · age 31
IN · 3 Negative regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupNYY vs SDWalker Buehler
Sample4649.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.049, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 14.1
F 13.2
V 12.6
Model 19.0% Market 16.9% Gap +1.5pp
FanDuel 470 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 66.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 83.2% Market 84.2% Gap +17.9pp
BetMGM -535 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.2%
39
Exit velocity89.0
63
Hard-hit%36.0%
39
xBA0.340
74
xSLG0.510
54
xwOBA0.345
88 +27 vs proj
BB%11.3%
81 +35 vs proj
Bat speed68.3
32
K%15.7%
86
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs2.8 · LF
94
Arm Strength99.7 · LF
90
Outs Above Avg0.0 · LF
49
Range Runs5.9 · LF
92
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.3 · LF
35
SB Success Rate45.5% · LF
2
Sprint Speed27.4 · LF
49
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 69.0%
68
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.9%
42
Correct Decisions67.7%
66
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline103
64
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.337 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.286 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.258
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.355 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.361
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.368
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.289 to 0.362
RegressionNegative · -0.005
Opposing pitcherWalker Buehler
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-04
Palantir 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 12714 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1629 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.007 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1125 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 8804 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 700 props Brier 0.165 ECE 0.033 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 922 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)