Mithrandir Metrics
BAL 2026-05-28 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-05-28

Tyler O'Neill

BAL · Hitter · bats R · age 31
IN · 3 Positive regression Neutral
MatchupBAL vs TORPatrick Corbin
Sample2149.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 22 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 14.2
F 17.2
V 12.9
Model 18.1% Market 18.6% Gap -1.1pp
DraftKings 420 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 58.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 58.0% Market 56.6% Gap +2.1pp
FanDuel -145 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 60.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 60.8% Market -- Gap --pp
Internal -- tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.4%
27 -49 vs proj
Exit velocity87.7
39
Hard-hit%37.3%
38 -32 vs proj
xBA0.255
5
xSLG0.435
26
xwOBA0.277
21 -40 vs proj
BB%10.3%
67
Bat speed70.4
64
K%23.9%
38
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.9 · RF
21
Arm Strength92.2 · RF
51
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · RF
20
Range Runs-1.1 · RF
36
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.8 · RF
65
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 50.0%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.3%
Small sample
Correct Decisions55.8%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.266 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.286
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.299 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.351
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline91
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.275 to 0.376
RegressionPositive · 0.007
Opposing pitcherPatrick Corbin
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)