Mithrandir Metrics
BAL 2026-09-04 Refreshed Sep 4 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-04

Tyler O'Neill

BAL · Hitter
IL10 · 3 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupBAL vs BOSRanger Suarez
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.049, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 11.8
F 13.2
V 14.4
Model 17.4% Market 18.6% Gap -1.7pp
DraftKings 420 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 58.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 70.0% Market 71.0% Gap +12.9pp
BetMGM -245 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.6%
60
Exit velocity89.2
67
Hard-hit%42.5%
69
xBA0.311
40
xSLG0.572
73
xwOBA0.307
54
BB%10.0%
67
Bat speed70.8
69
K%27.4%
26
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs1.6 · RF
85
Arm Strength98.7 · RF
87
Outs Above Avg-2.0 · RF
12
Range Runs-1.8 · RF
28
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed28.0 · RF
66
SB Success Rate100.0% · RF
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 68.3%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.6%
Small sample
Correct Decisions68.4%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.289 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.291 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.265
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.328 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.317
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.376
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline106
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range--
RegressionNegative · -0.009
Opposing pitcherRanger Suarez
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-04
Palantir 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 12714 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1629 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.007 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1125 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 8804 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 700 props Brier 0.165 ECE 0.033 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 922 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)