Mithrandir Metrics
BAL 2026-09-11 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-11

Tyler O'Neill

BAL · Hitter · bats R · age 31
IL10 · 3 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupBAL vs TORMax Scherzer
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.063, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.062, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 10.7
F 12.0
V 12.7
Model 15.6% Market 17.7% Gap -2.1pp
BetMGM 465 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 55.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 66.6% Market 67.7% Gap +11.9pp
BetMGM -210 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.6%
61
Exit velocity89.2
67
Hard-hit%42.5%
70
xBA0.311
41
xSLG0.572
73
xwOBA0.307
54
BB%10.0%
69
Bat speed70.8
69
K%27.4%
27
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs1.6 · RF
85
Arm Strength98.7 · RF
87
Outs Above Avg-2.0 · RF
12
Range Runs-1.9 · RF
27
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed28.0 · RF
65
SB Success Rate100.0% · RF
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 68.3%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.6%
Small sample
Correct Decisions68.4%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.288 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.292 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.265
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.327 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.317
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.376
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline106
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.275 to 0.376
RegressionNegative · -0.009
Opposing pitcherMax Scherzer
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-11
Palantir 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 13965 props Brier 0.113 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 1750 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1246 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.020 14d stable
Palantir 9432 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.046 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 756 props Brier 0.167 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 986 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.054 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)