Mithrandir Metrics
SF 2026-07-04 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-04

Willy Adames

SF · Hitter · bats R · age 31
IN · 6 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupSF vs COLTomoyuki Sugano
Sample4142.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 20.8
F 16.3
V 15.8
Model 21.0% Market 16.7% Gap +3.6pp
FanDuel 475 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 59.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 69.8% Market 70.6% Gap +11.0pp
BetMGM -240 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.2%
67
Exit velocity88.6
55
Hard-hit%40.6%
56
xBA0.310
37
xSLG0.558
65
xwOBA0.287
29
BB%5.6%
18
Bat speed70.3
59
K%28.0%
21
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.2 · SS
81
Arm Strength88.2 · SS
67
Outs Above Avg-12.0 · SS
0
Range Runs-9.1 · SS
1
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-2.3 · SS
4
Sprint Speed27.7 · SS
59
SB Success Rate33.3% · SS
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 65.6%
49
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.7%
44
Correct Decisions66.6%
54
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline100
47
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.273 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.283 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.279
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.351 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.349
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.375
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.285 to 0.372
RegressionNegative · -0.036
Opposing pitcherTomoyuki Sugano
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)