Mithrandir Metrics
SF 2026-07-17 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-17

Willy Adames

SF · Hitter · bats R · age 31
IN · 4 Negative regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupSF vs SEABryce Miller
Sample4175.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 15.3
F 13.5
V 15.5
Model 17.0% Market 17.1% Gap -0.7pp
DraftKings 465 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 60.9
F 61.5 EXPERIMENTAL
V 60.5 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 69.0% Market 70.2% Gap +9.3pp
BetMGM -235 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.8%
63 -16 vs proj
Exit velocity88.5
54
Hard-hit%40.3%
56
xBA0.318
46
xSLG0.563
68
xwOBA0.293
35 -40 vs proj
BB%6.6%
26 -48 vs proj
Bat speed70.5
63
K%28.0%
23
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.2 · SS
79
Arm Strength88.2 · SS
66
Outs Above Avg-11.0 · SS
1
Range Runs-8.5 · SS
1
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-2.1 · SS
5
Sprint Speed27.7 · SS
58
SB Success Rate50.0% · SS
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 65.6%
49
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.7%
44
Correct Decisions66.6%
54
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline100
47
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.273 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.283 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.279
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.351 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.349
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.375
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.285 to 0.372
RegressionNegative · -0.028
Opposing pitcherBryce Miller
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-17
Palantir 9390 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 9390 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.012 14d stable
Valinor 3795 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.007 14d stable
Palantir 453 props Brier 0.245 ECE 0.004 sample building
Fangorn 18 props Brier 0.243 ECE 0.080 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 3223 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.103 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 137 props Brier 0.153 ECE 0.025 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 328 props Brier 0.265 ECE 0.083 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)