Mithrandir Metrics
TEX 2026-09-08 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-08

Danny Jansen

TEX · Hitter · bats R · age 31
IN · 9 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupTEX vs SEABryce Miller
Sample1934.0career MLB AB
PROPS 1 available PERCENTILES 19 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.063, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.062, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 46.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 54.3% Market 55.6% Gap +8.8pp
BetMGM -125 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.3%
43
Exit velocity86.2
31
Hard-hit%31.8%
23
xBA0.248
4
xSLG0.422
22
xwOBA0.250
11 -21 vs proj
BB%8.7%
54 -16 vs proj
Bat speed67.1
22
K%28.8%
21 -25 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs1.8 · C
93
Catcher Throwing-0.8 · C
32
Framing Runs-4.6 · C
9
Pop Time2.0 · C
13
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.9 · C
35
SB Success Rate50.0% · C
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 74.6%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.5%
Small sample
Correct Decisions73.1%
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline112
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.258 to 0.343
RegressionNegative · -0.038
Opposing pitcherBryce Miller
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-11
Palantir 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 13965 props Brier 0.113 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 1750 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1246 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.020 14d stable
Palantir 9432 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.046 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 756 props Brier 0.167 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 986 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.054 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)