Mithrandir Metrics
ATH 2026-09-11 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-11

Jeff McNeil

ATH · Hitter
IN · 8 Negative regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupATH vs SEAGeorge Kirby
Sample3671.0career MLB AB
PROPS 1 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.063, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.062, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 53.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 63.7% Market 64.9% Gap +11.1pp
BetMGM -185 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%1.5%
7
Exit velocity86.3
33
Hard-hit%29.9%
17
xBA0.317
50
xSLG0.420
20
xwOBA0.306
53
BB%5.9%
21 -24 vs proj
Bat speed67.0
21
K%10.9%
98
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.2 · 2B
72
Arm Strength86.3 · 2B
43
Outs Above Avg1.0 · 2B
72
Range Runs-2.4 · 2B
27
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-2.1 · 2B
12
SB Success Rate83.3% · 2B
59
Sprint Speed26.3 · 2B
22
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 58.9%
19
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 16.9%
96
Correct Decisions69.3%
81
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline102
58
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.268 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.288 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.303
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.335 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.354
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.331
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range--
RegressionNegative · -0.008
Opposing pitcherGeorge Kirby
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-11
Palantir 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 13965 props Brier 0.113 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 1750 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1246 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.020 14d stable
Palantir 9432 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.046 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 756 props Brier 0.167 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 986 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.054 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)