Mithrandir Metrics
ATL 2026-09-04 Refreshed Sep 4 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-04

Ozzie Albies

ATL · Hitter · bats L · age 29
IN · 5 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupATL vs PHICristopher Sánchez
Sample4623.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.049, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 11.4
F 12.0
V 13.7
Model 18.3% Market 13.5% Gap +4.3pp
DraftKings 615 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 61.7
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 61.7% Market 79.0% Gap +15.8pp
FanDuel 115 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 24.7
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 24.7% Market -- Gap +7.5pp
FanDuel 210 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.1%
24 -20 vs proj
Exit velocity87.0
41
Hard-hit%28.8%
13 -16 vs proj
xBA0.277
13
xSLG0.426
22
xwOBA0.286
31 -34 vs proj
BB%7.2%
33
Bat speed67.0
21
K%14.5%
90
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.2 · 2B
65
Arm Strength89.5 · 2B
68
Outs Above Avg0.0 · 2B
46
Range Runs-0.1 · 2B
53
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.4 · 2B
20
Sprint Speed27.1 · 2B
41
SB Success Rate50.0% · 2B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 59.6%
21
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 15.8%
96
Correct Decisions67.2%
62
Resists FastballwOBA 0.368
11
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline104
66
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.306 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.284 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.305
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.327 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.327
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.287 to 0.360
RegressionNegative · -0.043
Opposing pitcherCristopher Sánchez
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-04
Palantir 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 12714 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1629 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.007 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1125 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 8804 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 700 props Brier 0.165 ECE 0.033 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 922 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)