Mithrandir Metrics
SF 2026-07-17 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-17

Rafael Devers

SF · Hitter · bats L · age 30
IN · 2 Negative regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupSF vs SEABryce Miller
Sample4774.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 15.9
F 13.5
V 15.9
Model 19.2% Market 20.3% Gap -1.7pp
DraftKings 375 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 67.1
F 65.9 EXPERIMENTAL
V 65.5 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 77.4% Market 78.5% Gap +11.4pp
BetMGM -365 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.7%
84
Exit velocity92.2
93
Hard-hit%50.8%
93
xBA0.335
64
xSLG0.662
89
xwOBA0.327
70 -20 vs proj
BB%9.2%
56 -29 vs proj
Bat speed70.4
61
K%27.2%
25 -15 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · 1B
28
Range Runs-0.6 · 1B
40
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.8 · 1B
21
Bolts1.0 · 1B
15
Sprint Speed26.1 · 1B
20
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 64.9%
46
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.0%
53
Correct Decisions67.6%
64
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline100
47
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.264 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.280 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.261
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.389 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.325
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.368
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.307 to 0.398
RegressionNegative · -0.024
Opposing pitcherBryce Miller
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-17
Palantir 9390 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 9390 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.012 14d stable
Valinor 3795 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.007 14d stable
Palantir 453 props Brier 0.245 ECE 0.004 sample building
Fangorn 18 props Brier 0.243 ECE 0.080 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 3223 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.103 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 137 props Brier 0.153 ECE 0.025 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 328 props Brier 0.265 ECE 0.083 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)