Mithrandir Metrics
SF 2026-08-31 Refreshed Aug 31 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-31

Rafael Devers

SF · Hitter · bats L · age 30
IN · 2 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupSF vs ATLBryce Elder
Sample4926.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.061, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.077, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.045, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.077, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 14.3
F 12.1
V 13.3
Model 21.2% Market 19.8% Gap +0.6pp
FanDuel 385 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 66.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 66.6% Market 78.5% Gap +15.0pp
FanDuel -110 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 26.7
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 26.7% Market -- Gap +3.6pp
FanDuel 230 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.3%
82
Exit velocity92.7
96
Hard-hit%50.7%
94
xBA0.327
60
xSLG0.634
86
xwOBA0.330
77 -18 vs proj
BB%10.0%
68 -20 vs proj
Bat speed70.6
66
K%25.6%
34
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.0 · 1B
46
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · 1B
28
Range Runs-1.2 · 1B
38
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.2 · 1B
38
Sprint Speed26.1 · 1B
19
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 64.0%
43
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.8%
43
Correct Decisions65.9%
49
Resists FastballwOBA 0.340
44
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline99
39
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.265 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.317 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.254
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.384 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.365
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.307 to 0.398
RegressionNegative · -0.029
Opposing pitcherBryce Elder
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-08-31
Palantir 17748 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17748 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12111 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1556 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1052 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.017 14d error rising
Palantir 8442 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.048 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 663 props Brier 0.164 ECE 0.032 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 870 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.062 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)