Mithrandir Metrics
SF 2026-09-11 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-11

Rafael Devers

SF · Hitter · bats L · age 30
IN · 2 Negative regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupSF vs SDRobbie Ray
Sample4959.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.063, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.062, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 12.0
F 11.7
V 13.9
Model 17.4% Market 20.2% Gap -2.8pp
BetMGM 395 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 61.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 75.2% Market 76.2% Gap +14.8pp
BetMGM -320 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%8.1%
88
Exit velocity92.9
97
Hard-hit%51.7%
96
xBA0.335
70
xSLG0.662
91
xwOBA0.341
86
BB%10.8%
77
Bat speed70.6
66
K%25.5%
36
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.0 · 1B
47
Outs Above Avg-2.0 · 1B
19
Range Runs-1.8 · 1B
34
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.2 · 1B
38
Sprint Speed26.1 · 1B
19
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 64.5%
45
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.8%
44
Correct Decisions65.9%
48
Resists FastballwOBA 0.352
26
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline99
43
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.286 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.313 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.269
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.402 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.366
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.307 to 0.398
RegressionNegative · -0.035
Opposing pitcherRobbie Ray
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-11
Palantir 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 13965 props Brier 0.113 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 1750 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1246 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.020 14d stable
Palantir 9432 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.046 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 756 props Brier 0.167 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 986 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.054 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)