Mithrandir Metrics
SEA 2026-07-17 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-17

Josh Naylor

SEA · Hitter · bats L · age 29
IN · 4 Positive regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupSEA vs SFLanden Roupp
Sample2943.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 13.8
F 13.5
V 14.8
Model 16.7% Market 16.4% Gap -0.2pp
DraftKings 490 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 69.4
F 69.4 EXPERIMENTAL
V 68.6 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 80.6% Market 81.7% Gap +12.2pp
BetMGM -445 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.7%
29 -25 vs proj
Exit velocity87.3
39
Hard-hit%37.0%
42 -17 vs proj
xBA0.315
43
xSLG0.461
32
xwOBA0.321
65
BB%7.4%
36
Bat speed68.2
29
K%12.6%
95
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg-2.0 · 1B
18
Range Runs-1.3 · 1B
36
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.4 · 1B
11
SB Success Rate93.8% · 1B
86
Sprint Speed24.6 · 1B
3
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 58.0%
17
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.3%
69
Correct Decisions63.1%
22
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline96
25
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.276 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.258 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.288
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.346 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.372
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.338
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.279 to 0.366
RegressionPositive · 0.002
Opposing pitcherLanden Roupp
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-17
Palantir 9390 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 9390 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.012 14d stable
Valinor 3795 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.007 14d stable
Palantir 453 props Brier 0.245 ECE 0.004 sample building
Fangorn 18 props Brier 0.243 ECE 0.080 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 3223 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.103 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 137 props Brier 0.153 ECE 0.025 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 328 props Brier 0.265 ECE 0.083 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)