Mithrandir Metrics
SEA 2026-07-19 Refreshed Jul 20 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-19

Josh Naylor

SEA · Hitter · bats L · age 29
IN · 6 Positive regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupSEA vs SFRobbie Ray
Sample2949.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.097, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Valinor calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.076, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.082, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 13.0
F 12.2
V 14.2
Model 16.0% Market 15.6% Gap -0.1pp
DraftKings 520 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 61.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 61.1% Market 79.0% Gap +11.5pp
FanDuel 200 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 21.7
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 21.7% Market -- Gap +3.5pp
FanDuel 400 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.7%
28 -25 vs proj
Exit velocity87.3
39
Hard-hit%37.0%
41 -19 vs proj
xBA0.314
41
xSLG0.458
31
xwOBA0.320
64
BB%7.4%
35
Bat speed68.1
29
K%12.5%
95
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg-2.0 · 1B
18
Range Runs-1.3 · 1B
35
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.4 · 1B
12
SB Success Rate93.8% · 1B
86
Sprint Speed24.6 · 1B
3
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 58.0%
17
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.3%
69
Correct Decisions63.1%
22
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline96
25
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.276 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.258 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.288
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.346 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.372
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.338
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.279 to 0.366
RegressionPositive · 0.001
Opposing pitcherRobbie Ray
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-20
Palantir 10059 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 10059 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Valinor 4464 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Palantir 860 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.035 14d error rising
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 356 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.041 14d stable
Palantir 4739 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.076 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 288 props Brier 0.176 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 462 props Brier 0.260 ECE 0.055 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)