Mithrandir Metrics
SF 2026-06-12 Refreshed Jun 12 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-06-12

Luis Arraez

SF · Hitter · bats L · age 29
IN · 1 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupSF vs CHCJavier Assad
Sample3507.0career MLB AB
PROPS 1 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 9.7
F 11.1
V 11.1
Model 9.0% Market 7.7% Gap +1.0pp
DraftKings 1150 tracking Open board
Total Bases --
Total Bases · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%0.3%
2
Exit velocity86.6
30
Hard-hit%22.1%
4
xBA0.305
30
xSLG0.390
12
xwOBA0.303
44 -17 vs proj
BB%5.0%
13
Bat speed61.6
1
K%4.4%
100
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.1 · 2B
69
Arm Strength88.0 · 2B
68
Outs Above Avg9.0 · 2B
99
Range Runs7.0 · 2B
98
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.6 · 2B
89
Sprint Speed26.7 · 2B
32
SB Success Rate100.0% · 2B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 64.8%
46
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.8%
20
Correct Decisions67.0%
59
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline97
30
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.267 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.317 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.274
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.359 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.349
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.362
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.293 to 0.366
RegressionNegative · -0.064
Opposing pitcherJavier Assad
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-06-12
Palantir 5214 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Fangorn 5214 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Valinor 1176 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.013 sample building
Palantir 49 props Brier 0.228 ECE 0.190 sample building
Fangorn 13 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.139 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 194 props Brier 0.262 ECE 0.207 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 2 props Brier 0.560 ECE 0.748 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 40 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.040 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)