Mithrandir Metrics
SF 2026-07-19 Refreshed Jul 20 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-19

Luis Arraez

SF · Hitter · bats L · age 29
IN · 1 Negative regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupSF vs SEALogan Gilbert
Sample3614.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.097, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Valinor calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.076, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.082, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 7.8
F 8.6
V 12.8
Model 7.8% Market 7.7% Gap -0.2pp
DraftKings 1150 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 53.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 53.5% Market 81.5% Gap +12.2pp
FanDuel 120 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 32.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 32.5% Market -- Gap +1.5pp
FanDuel 210 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%0.5%
2
Exit velocity86.0
25
Hard-hit%21.9%
4
xBA0.300
26
xSLG0.391
10
xwOBA0.306
50 -16 vs proj
BB%5.8%
19
Bat speed61.6
1
K%3.9%
100
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.3 · 2B
88
Arm Strength88.0 · 2B
64
Outs Above Avg10.0 · 2B
99
Range Runs7.5 · 2B
98
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.9 · 2B
87
SB Success Rate100.0% · 2B
93
Sprint Speed26.7 · 2B
32
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 64.7%
45
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.7%
20
Correct Decisions66.7%
58
Resists FastballwOBA 0.355
20
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline97
30
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.268 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.320 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.275
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.359 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.372
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.293 to 0.366
RegressionNegative · -0.068
Opposing pitcherLogan Gilbert
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-20
Palantir 10059 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 10059 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Valinor 4464 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Palantir 860 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.035 14d error rising
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 356 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.041 14d stable
Palantir 4739 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.076 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 288 props Brier 0.176 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 462 props Brier 0.260 ECE 0.055 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)