Mithrandir Metrics
PHI 2026-08-09 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-09

Luis Arraez

PHI · Hitter · bats L · age 29
IN · 4 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupPHI vs TORShane Bieber
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 16 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 11.3
F 13.2
V 16.1
Model 11.3% Market 7.7% Gap +3.3pp
DraftKings 1150 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 70.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 85.4% Market 86.4% Gap +15.6pp
BetMGM -635 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%0.8%
3
Exit velocity86.2
30
Hard-hit%20.2%
3
xBA0.301
28
xSLG0.396
12
xwOBA0.305
50 -28 vs proj
BB%5.3%
16
Bat speed61.6
1
K%4.5%
100
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.3 · 2B
89
Arm Strength88.4 · 2B
59
Outs Above Avg11.0 · 2B
98
Range Runs8.1 · 2B
97
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.5 · 2B
77
SB Success Rate100.0% · 2B
94
Sprint Speed26.7 · 2B
31

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.303 to 0.378
RegressionNegative · -0.059
Opposing pitcherShane Bieber
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)